The 7IM Personal Injury Fund – June 2016 Comment

Markets were understandably shocked by the UK Brexit Referendum result.  As the polls closed, betting markets reflected a probability of a Remain outcome, and key Leave campaigners appeared to be conceding defeat. Hours later, early results confirmed that a shock was unfolding: far from the expected continuation of status quo, we were entering new and uncertain territory. Investors were not positioned for this outcome, and the immediate market reaction was brutal as markets adjusted to the  surprise: Sterling dropped over 8% against the Dollar on the day, and markets sharply, UK mid-caps and  European indices, seen as most exposed to the economic fall-­out. UK large caps – the FTSE 100 index – were relatively insulated, thanks to the very high overseas exposure of the UK’s largest companies: over 80% of FTSE 100 sales are generated the UK, so the Pound’s fall increases the value of these overseas revenues in Sterling terms. Meanwhile, safe havens rallied, with gilt and US Treasury yields falling to extreme lows and gold rallying sharply (over 19% in GBP terms for the month as a whole).

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